基于SPEI指数的淮河流域干旱时空演变特征及影响研究

运用淮河流域149个气象站1962—2016年逐日气温、降水资料以及历史旱情资料,基于SPEI、EOF和M-K等方法分析淮河流域的干旱时空特征,研究干旱的时空演变规律并揭示其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:(1)基于SPEI得到的干旱频次与受灾、成灾面积的相关性通过了0.1的显著性水平检验,表明SPEI在淮河流域具有较好的适用性;(2)淮河流域干旱发生时间差异明显,干旱次数呈现波动变化,发生重旱和特旱次数占总干旱的比重是20.0%,其中重旱和特旱在1960s比重最大(24.8%),其次是2010s(15.8%),在1980s比重最低(10.0%);(3)干旱的空间分布差异大,淮河流域干旱频率在27.76%—36.04%之间,西北部和东南部发生干旱强度较西南部、东北部及中部低;(4)淮河流域总体呈干旱化的趋势,从中部到四周呈现由高到低递减的趋势变化,且空间模态表现为全区一致型、南北相反型和东西相反型。     

Effect of interannual precipitation variability on dryland productivity: A global synthesis

Climate‐change assessments project increasing precipitation variability through increased frequency of extreme events. However, the effects of interannual precipitation variance per se on ecosystem functioning have been largely understudied. Here, we report on the effects of interannual precipitation variability on the primary production of global drylands, which include deserts, steppes, shrublands, grasslands, and prairies and cover about 40% of the terrestrial earth surface. We used a global database that has 43 datasets, which are uniformly distributed in parameter space and each has at least 10 years of data. We found (a) that at the global scale, precipitation variability has a negative effect on aboveground net primary production. (b) Expected increases in interannual precipitation variability for the year 2,100 may result in a decrease of up to 12% of the global terrestrial carbon sink. (c) The effect of precipitation interannual variability on dryland productivity changes from positive to negative along a precipitation gradient. Arid sites with mean precipitation under 300 mm/year responded positively to increases in precipitation variability, whereas sites with mean precipitation over 300 mm/year responded negatively. We propose three complementary mechanisms to explain this result: (a) concave‐up and concave‐down precipitation–production relationships in arid vs. humid systems, (b) shift in the distribution of water in the soil profile, and (c) altered frequency of positive and negative legacies. Our results demonstrated that enhanced precipitation variability will have direct impacts on global drylands that can potentially affect the future terrestrial carbon sink.     

Divergent responses of Atlantic cod to ocean acidification and food limitation

In order to understand the effect of global change on marine fishes, it is imperative to quantify the effects on fundamental parameters such as survival and growth. Larval survival and recruitment of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were found to be heavily impaired by end‐of‐century levels of ocean acidification. Here, we analysed larval growth among 35–36 days old surviving larvae, along with organ development and ossification of the skeleton. We combined CO₂ treatments (ambient: 503 µatm, elevated: 1,179 µatm) with food availability in order to evaluate the effect of energy limitation in addition to the ocean acidification stressor. As expected, larval size (as a proxy for growth) and skeletogenesis were positively affected by high food availability. We found significant interactions between acidification and food availability. Larvae fed ad libitum showed little difference in growth and skeletogenesis due to the CO₂ treatment. Larvae under energy limitation were significantly larger and had further developed skeletal structures in the elevated CO₂ treatment compared to the ambient CO₂ treatment. However, the elevated CO₂ group revealed impairments in critically important organs, such as the liver, and had comparatively smaller functional gills indicating a mismatch between size and function. It is therefore likely that individual larvae that had survived acidification treatments will suffer from impairments later during ontogeny. Our study highlights important allocation trade‐off between growth and organ development, which is critically important to interpret acidification effects on early life stages of fish.     

Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space‐for‐time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well‐constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space‐for‐time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10‐ to 40‐fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35‐fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well‐constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.     

Changes in seasonal precipitation distribution but not annual amount affect litter decomposition in a secondary tropical forest

In the tropics of South China, climate change induced more rainfall events in the wet season in the last decades. Moreover, there will be more frequently spring drought in the future. However, knowledge on how litter decomposition rate would respond to these seasonal precipitation changes is still limited. In the present study, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment in a tropical forest. First, we applied a 60% rainfall exclusion in April and May to defer the onset of wet season and added the same amount of water in October and November to mimic a deferred wet season (DW); second, we increased as much as 25% mean annual precipitation into plots in July and August to simulate a wetter wet season (WW). Five single‐species litters, with their carbon to nitrogen ratio ranged from 27 to 49, and a mixed litter were used to explore how the precipitation change treatments would affect litter decomposition rate. The interaction between precipitation changes and litter species was not significant. The DW treatment marginally accelerated litter decomposition across six litter types. Detailed analysis showed that DW increased litter decomposition rate in the periods of January to March and October to December, when soil moisture was increased by the water addition in the dry season. In contrast, WW did not significantly affect litter decomposition rate, which was consistent with the unchanged soil moisture pattern. In conclusion, the study indicated that regardless of litter types or litter quality, the projected deferred wet season would increase litter decomposition rate, whereas the wetter wet season would not affect litter decomposition rate in the tropical forests. This study improves our knowledge of how tropical forest carbon cycling in response to precipitation change.     

Diversity of Saxicolous Lichens along an Aridity Gradient in Central México

Lichens are symbiotic organisms that comprise a fungus and a photosynthetic partner wich are recognized as a good indicator of climate change. However, our understanding of how aridity affects the diversity of saxicolous lichens in drylands is still limited. To evaluate the relationship between saxicolous lichen diversity and aridity in a central México dryland, a geographical transect was established of 100 km to build an aridity gradient in the semiarid zone of the State of Querétaro, Mexico, comprising ten sampling sites with a 10 km separation. Species richness, abundance and diversity of soil lichen species were recorded using two sampling methods: the quadrat-intercept and the line-intercept method, to compare their performance in assessing soil lichen diversity in drylands. The number of species and Shannon diversity of saxicolous lichens were higher at intermediate values of the aridity index (AI = 0.10–0.34). Quadrat intercept and point intercept methods gave quite similar results, which means that the selected method does not influence the results in a significant way. This study confirms the role of saxicolous lichens as climate change indicators and reveals the importance of the sampling method selection in the evaluation of different parameters of soil lichen diversity in drylands.     

Are regional precipitation–productivity relationships robust to decadal-scale dry period?

降水-生产力的空间关系是否稳定不变？ 降水是全球陆地生态系统中植被生长和净初级生产力的主要驱动因素。因此,探究降水和生产力关系有助于深入了解气候变化如何改变生态系统功能。降水-生产力的空间关系在全球不同草地上非常相似,但在连续多年气候异常的情况下,这种关系是否会发生变化以及如何变化尚不清楚。本研究利用 利用中国北方温带草地长达10年低于多年平均降水的时期,基于遥感植被指数数据,量化了区域尺度上降水-植被生产力关系在持续多年的干湿期之间将如何变化。结果表明,在连续10年的干期,降水-生产力空间相关性急剧下降,而该空间关系的下降主要是由于不同草原类型对干旱的响应在空间上存在高度的异质性,即不同生态系统对干旱的响应程度存在差异。因此,如果未来气候变化进一步加剧全球草地的干旱,那么基于历史时期(平水期)得到的降水-生产力空间关系推测区域尺度植被生产力可能导致误差。